Keisei Tominaga: Olympic Hopes

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Tominaga
Credits IPA Agency

It’s that time of the year… With the Olympic Games due to tip off this weekend from Paris, we’d like to turn your attention to one of the most exciting under-25 players still looking to establish himself as a pro and in the FIBA International scene. Get ready to dive into Keisei Tominaga’s profile: a terrific jump shooter all the way from Japan and via University of Nebraska.

Fasten your seatbelts… We are going to shoot the lights out…

Bio/Data

It can’t be easy carrying the expectations of a nation on your shoulders. When you talk about hoops in a 125 million people country like Japan, this has been the case for a handful of names such as Yuta Watanabe (George Washington), Rui Hachimura (Gonzaga), and lately Keisei Tominaga. The three of them moved to USA to test themselves in a more competitive environment at young age, but for Tominaga, the path to Division-I basketball included a two-year stop in the Junior College ranks because of his lack of grades (Ranger College 2019-2021).

The son of the former Japanese international Hiroyuki Tominaga, Keisei’s talent was easy to spot in his homeland high school championships and straight away in every Texas gym at Juco level. Fearless lefty guard with narrow shoulders and baby face that could put points on the board without needing much of the ball. Tominaga used to ride the edge every possession and his energy was as contagious as it’s today. He was also extremely lightweight; some would say even undersize to warrant a two-guard spot. It wasn’t an issue for Nebraska’s head coach Fred Hoiberg, who secured Tominaga’s commitment just a month after he moved to the States.

For Hoiberg, an experienced recruiter well known for capitalizing on transfers before the transfer portal was a thing, Tominaga’s shooting prowess was the ideal cornerstone to build a program. Too much of a weapon to let it pass. They don’t call you the Japanese Steph Curry for nothing, and after three years hitting daggers for the Cornhuskers in the B1G Conference, Keisei’s hard work has turned a catchy phrase into a fabulous shoe-deal and an Exhibit-10 contract with the Indiana Pacers in the NBA. At this point, we are allowed to think the Pacers know a proper sniper when they see one, don’t they?

How does he play

Keisei Tominaga lives for the moment when he steps onto a basketball court. In short, he is a bucket-getter with supreme confidence who can light up a game in seconds. At times, despite his size and build, you would think Tominaga fits right in the shooting-wing category rather than the classic two-guard archetype. He’s not an ISO scorer per se although does most of his damage with the rock in his hands and through ball-screens (2.7pts/game at Nebraska, per Synergy) and handoffs (2.5pts/game), where he gets time and space for his jump shot. Tominaga could use a bit more of follow-through on his one-motion jumper, but nevertheless his quick release makes him a certified threat from range: 37.6% from deep with 3 or more triples 14 times in his super-senior season with the Cornhuskers.

 Shooters are always going to shoot it. However, Tominaga’s electric approach doesn’t rely just on pure instinct but mostly on a full bag of tricks to get enough separation for his pull up move and maximize any advantages he can get off screens. He loves to punish mismatches too. Body balance, jab step and crisp footwork, pump fakes, one-side dribbles, step backs and side steps… Everything counts to get rid of shot stoppers and bigger or more athletic matchups. Tominaga is also a much better shooter off the dribble (46.9% over 4 attempts per Synergy) than off the catch (32.7% over 3.3 attempts) and it shows in terms of raw percentages and volume.

 

Boasting an impressive 60.8 TS%, Tominaga has posted a career-high clip of 86.8% from the free-throw line this season. Still, he only goes 2.5 times per game to the charity-stripe. With a 26.7% usage-rate for the Cornhuskers, such low numbers highlight his physical shortages and below-the-rim game (no dunks over his CBB career whatsoever), as well as some trouble getting downhill in traffic. Despite shooting 58.5% at the rim, most of Tominaga’s attempts at the hoop come in transition offense (2.6pts/game) and off-motion sets, with Keisei showing touch, IQ and timing to shine off the ball while putting up 1.5pts/game as a cutter (74th percentile per Synergy)

 With everything said, it just feels like Tominaga could get much more of his gravity as a shooter whether he creates driving lanes for himself or open shots for his teammates. We have seen progress this season attacking closeouts in straight lines or changing speed and direction in high picks. Keisei’s runner game has matured (54.3 FG%) and he’s built a strong 2×2 partnership with Nebraska’s big man Rienk Mast (01) as well. Tominaga’s handles still need some polishing, but there are encouraging flashes when he combines his light feet and agility making up for the lack of power and athletic tools. Tominaga’s career-high assists for the year (1.8) indicates there’s room to become a reliable secondary initiator if he can improve ball security (1.08 A:TO ratio).

Defense matters

While he can consistently make his mark on offense, Tominaga’s limitations are in display on the defensive end. Regardless of his muscular development at Nebraska, the Japanese starlet is still pretty much on the small side. He’s not particularly strong navigating screens or fast moving his hips to stay in front of explosive matchups. In addition, he suffers contesting pull ups above his frame and standing reach, so often teams will target and try to expose Tominaga defensively.

How do you minimize Tominaga’s lack of physicality and defensive issues? The Nebraska Cornhuskers have put in place a well-oiled help defense and rotations system in which Tominaga is regularly allowed to drift and cover space or swap matchups rather than stick with his man one-to-one. On the same note, Fred Hoiberg periodically uses zonal defenses exploiting Tominaga’s motor and quick feet on the front line of a classic 2-3 zone.

Not everything is a net loss for Tominaga on D, though. Overall Keisei is a willing defender that plays with a ton of energy. He has upgraded his rebounding this season (2.3) and reaction time. He can stunt and recover, clog the passing lanes and closeout shooters on his feet even if results are sometimes mixed. Anyhow, Tominaga will need to toughen up if he wants to stay longer on the floor or he could easily fall into the one-way player type with a lesser impact in games with the pros.

Role with Japan and expectations

After being the best team of Asia in last year’s FIBA World Cup, Japan arguably has its stronger roster for the Olympic Games with a former lottery pick like Rui Hachimura leading the charge. The Lakers forward will be flanked by Yuta Watanabe and Yudi Baba on the wings, naturalized center Josh Hawkinson in the paint, and Yuki Kawamura and Tominaga himself in the guard spot. Japan’s performances in several scrimmages prior to the Olympic tournament have been underwhelming (only beat South Korea) and it won’t get any easier in Paris when they face World Champions Germany, then hosts France and finally Brazil to close their group stage.

 To get a better idea of Tominaga’s prospects with his national team, I asked the Japanese youth hoops analyst and founder of CBB Asia, Journeyman (@tommy_ussports) what can we expect from him at the Olympics.

“Tominaga impressed last year in the FIBA World Cup bringing much needed scoring punch off the bench and he’s expected to have the same impact this summer. He’s not considered a first offensive option as he has been for Nebraska, although has played a larger role in some scrimmages with Yuta Watanabe out of the picture.

Tominaga was tightly guarded and struggled with his shooting, but he’ll get better looks going forward with Watanabe and Hachimura shouldering most of the offense and getting most attention from opposition defenses. The backcourt partnership between Yuki Kawamura (01) and Tominaga is a special one and will be key for the Japanese national team in the future.

Defensively, Japan’s head coach Tom Hovasse still has work to do to hide Tominaga’s weaknesses, but he will need Keisei’s spark to provide spacing and points from deep. Tominaga’s energy levels and flamboyant shooting will be vital for Japan if they are going to pull an upset in Paris. One win in the group stage games would be a massive coup for Japanese basketball”

What’s next for Tominaga after Paris? A return home as a professional has been always in the cards and would no doubt boost the Japanese B League in the short term. However, it looks like Keisei will pursue the American Dream next season, and at the very least his recent deal with the Pacers has opened the G League doors to him. In right set up, Tominaga could yet flourish as an effective sharpshooter who’s not a net negative on his own end. An NBA call-up could be in the horizon sooner than we think. It’s only natural to picture Tominaga in a medium to high-level league first, though, playing with a chip on his shoulder, hitting shots from anywhere and developing toughness and defensive instincts in the process.

For now, and until the professional challenge resumes, let’s enjoy Tominaga suiting up for his country and ready to shoot the lights out once again in the big stage. Basketball never stops…

If you’d like to learn more about Tominaga’s development path, listen to our recent chat with Nebraska’s Director of Basketball Strategies Luca Virgilio (Italian audio only) or catch the English transcription here.

 

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